Black Monday NFL Season 2015

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There are 12 (Chip Kelly already fired) 11 (Gus Bradley save) 10 (Jason Garrett save) 9 (Mike Pettine fired) 8 (Jim Tomsula fired) 7 (Mike McCoy save) 6 (Tom Coughlin “stepped down”) 5 (Chuck Pagano signed a 4-year extension with the Colts) 4 (Sean Payton save) 3 (Dan Campbell didn’t get the permanent job) 2 NFL Head Coaches on a hot chair for Black Monday of the NFL 2015 Season. Let’s have a look how likely it is that they will be looking for new job on Tuesday, January 5th, 2016: (The coaches are listed in alphabetical order of their current team)

On the hot seat

  • Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions, 7-9, 3rd NFC North
    An up and down season for the Lions with a disappointing outcome, everybody thought playoffs before the season. How much of that is Caldwell’s responsibility?
    Update (Jan, 4th): The Lions are planning to interview G.M. candidates this week. Only after that role is filled will Caldwell find out if he’s going to be back and so will we. That role has been filled in the meantime: Bob Quinn, former director of pro scouting for the New England Patriots. So now it’s up to him to decide what will happen with Jim Caldwell.
    Chances Caldwell gets fired: 70%

In between

The two interims coaches haven’t been made permanent, but initially weren’t ruled out of the race either – well, in the meantime it has been confirmed that Dan Campbell didn’t get the permanent job, so I put them originally in an in between role, as their teams are openly looking into the posibilities of other candidates…

  • Mike Mularkey, Tennessee Titans, 3-13, 4th AFC South
    As already stated interims Coaches are more than likely not to get the permanent job. It also depends on if the Titans believe Chip Kelly learned his lesson in Philadelphia and deserves a second chance in the NFL then a reunion with his star QB Mariota would be very likely.
    Chances he won’t get the job: 80%

Already fired:

  • Chip Kelly, Philadelphia Eagles, 6-9, 3rd NFC East
    nothing to comment anymore, he got fired, already. The only question remains: Will one-week interims Head Coach Pat Shurmur have a chance for the permanent job, and if not, will he stay?
  • Mike Pettine, Cleveland Browns, 3-13, 4th AFC North
    Oh my, what a QB mess. It was clearly not alone his idea to hire that irresponsible troublemaker of QB (Johnny Manziel) but he handled the situation poorly. Either that or he was overruled in his reaction to sit him after the first video emerged. Either way, these are clear signals he won’t be in charge very much longer. – Another strong hint that Pettine won’t be back is the reaction – or rather non-reaction – of Browns owner Jimmy Haslam, when Pettine asked him if he made his mind up about him staying or not.
    Got fired already on Sunday after the game, together with GM Ray Farmer
  • Jim Tomsula, San Francisco 49ers, 5-11, 4th NFC West
    Normally you don’t fire a coach after his first year. But what’s normal for the 49ers? Especially with Mike Holmgren already openly talked about as his potential successor.
    Got fired after just one season
  • Tom Coughlin, New York Giants, 6-10, 2nd NFC East
    pending a win vs a now highly motivated Eagles roster (they have to prove it’s been Kelly, not them) the Giants could at least end the season with a positive note: a) at least 2nd in the NFC East plus avoiding the London game next season.
    Coughlin stepped down (offical wording) after 12 Seasons including 2 SuperBowls
  • Lovie Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-10, 4th NFC South
    this firing came on Wednesday, January 6th totally out of the blue for almost everybody, but when you have a closer look at it, it’s really understandable. The Bucs have only improved on offense (that’s also why OC Koetter is now a hot prospect for the now open HC job), but not on defense, which is Smith’s domain. After being 6-6 and just one win away from a possible wildcard spot the Bucs totally fell apart (mainly on defense) and lost the last 4 games, two of them by huge margins…
  • Dan Campbell, Miami Dolphins, 6-10, 4th AFC East
    Interims coaches are called that for a reason: He’ll coach ’til they find one to fill the position permanently. On rare occasions he might prove to be that man.
    As the Dolphins announced on Sat. January 9th that they hired Adam Gase as their new head coach it is clear that Dan Campbell might be – if at all – be retained in his previous role as the TE coach.

Save

  • Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-11, 3rd AFC South
    Owner Shad Khan satisfied with the progress of the team and “how far we’ve come in many aspects of our game”, but also made clear that he’ll expect a better record than the current 5-10 for the 2016 season. So take that as an announcement that Gus Bradley will be on the hot seat from week 1 on.
  • Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys, 4-12, 4th NFC East
    Oh what a bad season for the Cowboys. In a sorry NFC East being dead last. But with Tony Romo out for a good part of the season he has a good excuse. Even better, owner Jones has already communicated that the Cowboys would be going for a new QB in the offseason, so he clearly puts the blame on the QB situation, not the HC
    Just what I said: since coaching being at least part of the team’s failures this year, Jason Garrett is save and doesn’t have to fear Black Monday anymore, according to Stephen Jones.
  • Mike McCoy, San Diego Chargers, 4-12, 4th AFC West
    Poor season, plus a potential move to L.A. – why not clear the house completely and start off at a new location with a new Headcoach?
    according to Michael Gehlken he “is save” – now (January, 8th 2016) he’s not only save but also got a one-year extension through 2017
  • Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts, 8-8, 2nd AFC South
    despite going 8-8 the Colts missed the playoffs. Losing his franchise QB in midseason didn’t make it easier, though. Plus: Lots of rumors went around during the season, like he wouldn’t want to be back for 2016 anyways because he turned down a one year extension in the offseason. Well he denied that now, loud and clear: I’ll fight my ass off to be coach here.Update (Jan, 1st 9am EST): due to sources the colts won’t resign him, but GM Ryan Grigson – who’s relationship to Pagano is described as toxic – is also not save. He’s supposed to help finding a new HC, but if the new HC demands a change on the GM position Grigson’s also gone.
    Update (Jan 4th, 11pm EST):  The Indianapolis Colts and HC Chuck Pagano agreed to a 4-year extension – also Ryan Grigson’s contract (still good for one year) was extended for 3 years, so both contracts run until the end of the 2019 season.
  • Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints, 7-9, 4th NFC South
    What a lousy season for the Saints, and no real excuses. But on the other hand he survived worse, like the bounty-scandal. So why should he be fired? – On the other hand rumors have it that the Saints are willing to trade him for a 2nd round draft pick – actually, with a Drew Brees eager to follow him, that could be a steal for any team looking for a new veteran HC. – After there were talks with the Colts who then decided to stick with Chuck Pagano, Payton and the Saints seem to have come to an agreement.

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